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Severe weather - parts of the Waikato region

Published at 1.30pm on Thursday, 3 April 2025

Situation

A complex weather system will move across the Waikato region on Thursday afternoon and Friday, bringing heavy rain and strong winds. The heaviest rain is expected in the Coromandel Peninsula, Kaimai ranges, and Tongariro National Park. Please keep up to date with the current weather and messages from local Civil Defence.

For the latest river level and rainfall data, please visit our Environmental Data Hub.

MetService forecast

Changes to the weather can occur, so please keep up-to-date with the latest forecasts. For national severe weather information, MetService is New Zealand’s only authorised provider of Severe Weather Alerts.

A complex trough accompanied by a strong moist northerly flow moves east across the Waikato region this afternoon (Thursday, 3 April) and tomorrow (Friday, 4 April). This system is expected to bring heavy rain across the whole region, accompanied by strong winds in exposed locations, with the heaviest rain expected across the Coromandel and Kaimai ranges and Tongariro National Park.  

Heavy Rain Warning - Orange

Area: Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty west of Whakatane
Period: 16hrs from 1:00am Friday to 5:00pm Friday
Forecast: Expect 90 to 120 mm of rain with the largest accumulations about the ranges. Peak rates of 15 to 20 mm/h expected.
Low chance of upgrading to a Red Warning.

Area: Tongariro National Park
Period: 19hrs from 11:00pm Thursday to 6:00pm Friday
Forecast: Expect 90 to 120 mm of rain. Peak rates of 15 to 25 mm/h expected. Low chance of upgrading to a Red Warning.

Heavy Rain Watch - Yellow

Area: Waikato, Waitomo, and Taumarunui apart from Tongariro National Park
Period: 17hrs from 11pm Thursday to 4pm Friday
Forecast: Periods of heavy rain, and amounts may approach warning criteria. Moderate chance of upgrading to a Warning.

Likely/potential Impacts

Rivers and lakes

All catchments across the region have ample storage due to very low rainfall across the region the past few months to accommodate the forecasted rainfall. However, despite this, downpours may cause rivers to rise rapidly causing localised flooding

Coastal impacts

For the Firth of Thames, no significant coastal inundation is anticipated; however, along the Wharekawa Coast there may be some localised wave overtopping/splashing around high tide in localised low lying locations. No expected coastal impacts for the eastern Coromandel or for the west coast of the Waikato region.
 
High tides for the next couple of days in the Firth of Thames

Thursday 03/04/2025
High tide: 11:50 am

Friday 04/04/2025
High tide: 12:24 am
High tide: 12:43 pm 

Land instability

The chance of landslides occurring is low due to the catchment being dry, however rain has potential to impact localised areas. Areas that would normally experience land instability may be affected. Please keep up to date with the latest advice from NZ Transport Agency Waka Kotahi and your local council. 

Waikato Regional Council Zone Summary 

Local flood response staff are preparing for the anticipated rain and have been out and about this morning checking key sites across the region. They remain on standby to respond to any impacts this weather may bring.

While upgrades to WRC flood infrastructure has occurred during the dryer months, all infrastructure is working as it should.

Waikato Regional Council telemetry 

All telemetry equipment is working as it should. For the latest telemetry information, please lease visit our Environmental Data Hub.

Next update

Flood Room Live will be updated by 1pm on on Friday, 4 April or earlier if circumstances change.