Flood room status
Flood Room is activated. For information on current river levels, flows and rainfall accumulations, please visit our Environmental Data Hub.
What the status levels mean
Flood Room is activated
Updated at 12.45pm on Monday, 27 October 2025
Situation
Our Flood Room has been moved to 'activated'. That's because of the potential for impacts from further unsettled weather forecast to land in our region from today (Monday, 27 October) and into Tuesday.
Since the flooding we experienced almost a fortnight ago, in particular in the Waitomo, Ōtorohanga and western Waikato areas, river levels have remained high and catchments saturated. While widespread impacts are unlikely at this stage, any further rain may impact catchments and rivers, and increase landslide susceptibility. This could be attributable to rainfall or wind.
The highest rainfall accumulations are expected in the ranges, but localised lines of thunderstorms could develop outside the current warning area, potentially increasing rainfall rates to 25–50 mm/h overnight, particularly before dawn. In consultation with MetService, it has been decided to lower the usual rain warning threshold to recognise our saturated catchments and the forecast's uncertainties.
Wind conditions are also evolving. Northwest winds are strengthening, especially along the west coast, with Kāwhia Harbour and coastal Waitomo likely to experience the strongest gusts. Winds are expected to shift to southwest tomorrow, which may bring onshore gusts across the Waikato coast. The Coromandel Peninsula also faces a higher risk of strong winds, particularly if thunderstorms develop.
Te Kūiti and Awakino rivers will be particularly sensitive to rainfall and, although we don't anticipate the same amount of flow as last week on the Awakino River, we cannot discount that.
Rangiriri and Mercer may see Waikato River levels rise, but the exact level will not be known until after the rain has fallen. Fortunately, we have some time after to adjust flows to mitigate potential impacts.
Waikato Regional Council and Mercury are continuously assessing and managing the Waikato Hydro system, as well as monitoring the Waipā River, as we are still in Phase 1 of the High Flow Management Plan.
It is anticipated that river levels at Hamilton will remain below the 14 metre alarm levels.
Impacts on our western coastal areas will probably see wave action that will peak on a high but neap tide on Wednesday morning.
Waikato Regional Council will continue to monitor all conditions closely.
Please note Severe Warnings and Watches could be updated into the coming 24 hours. Please keep up to date with the current MetService weather forecasts and messages from local civil defence.
Visit our Environmental Data Hub for the latest river level and rainfall accumulations.
MetService forecast
An active low pressure system over the Tasman Sea moves across New Zealand during Labour Day and Tuesday morning, bringing heavy rain and strong winds to many regions, with impacts reaching into parts of the Waikato region.
- A heavy rain warning (orange) has been issued for the central North Island hill country from southern Waikato to Tongariro National Park within the Waikato region.
- A Road Snowfall Warning has been issued for the Desert Road.
Heavy Rain Warning (Orange) - Central North Island hill country from southern Waikato to Tongariro National Park
Period:12 hours from 4pm Monday - 4am Tuesday
Forecast: Expect 50 to 80 mm of rain, especially about the ranges. Thunderstorms possible. Peak rates of 15 to 25 mm/h expected tonight and overnight. Minimal chance of upgrading to a Red Warning.
Impact: Streams and rivers may rise rapidly. Surface flooding, slips, and difficult driving conditions possible.
Action: Clear your drains and gutters to prepare for heavy rain. Avoid low-lying areas and drive cautiously
Road Snowfall Warning - Desert Road (SH1)
Period: 4 hours from 12pm-4pm Tuesday
Forecast: Snow showers lowering to 800 metres, with 1 to 2cm possibly settling on the road above this level.
There is low confidence that heavy rain may reach warning thresholds in Waitomo, Taumarunui, and areas near the western ranges of the Waikato, particularly inland zones away from the maunga. While the most significant rainfall is expected further south and west, these Waikato areas could still experience localised downpours, especially in elevated terrain.
At this stage, no significant snow or severe wind impacts are expected for the remainder of the Waikato region until at least Saturday, 1 November, with the risk of severe northwest gales remaining low across the upper North Island.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
A strengthening north westerly flow with embedded fronts is forecast to affect the central and northern parts of the North Island, including the Waikato region, from late Monday into Tuesday.
For Waikato, rainfall intensities may increase overnight, especially if thunderstorms develop, potentially reaching 10–25 mm/h. While the risk of severe weather is lower in the Waikato than in southern regions, elevated river levels and saturated catchments mean even moderate rainfall could have localised impacts.
Hydrological systems such as Lake Taupō and Karāpiro remain stable, but continued monitoring is essential.
For information preparing for and keeping safe during a storm, see the National Emergency Management Agency's Get Ready website.
Likely/potential Impacts
Rivers and lakes
Lake Taupō outflows are still at maximum discharge of 300 cubic metres per second (cumecs) and remain below consented maximum control level of 357.25 metres.
With additional rain forecasted in Tongariro this may put additional pressure on the Waikato Hydro scheme. Rest assured, Waikato Regional Council will be monitoring the system closely with Mercury.
Snow and wind
A Road Snowfall Warning has been issued for the Desert Road (SH1), where snow showers are expected to lower to around 800 metres, with 1 to 2cm of snow potentially settling on the road above this elevation. Drivers should be prepared for reduced visibility and slippery conditions.
A Strong Wind Watch is also in place for Taranaki, Taihape and inland Whanganui, with north to northwest winds possibly approaching severe gale strength in exposed areas. These winds may affect western parts of the Waikato region, particularly around Kāwhia Harbour and coastal Waitomo, and could shift to southwest flow, bringing strong onshore gusts. The Coromandel Peninsula also faces a higher risk of strong winds, especially if thunderstorms develop.
Please keep up to date with information from your local power provider, the NZ Transport Agency Waka Kotahi and local civil defence.
Coastal impacts
There are no major changes to the coastal forecast for the Waikato region over the coming days through to Wednesday, 29 October, although there has been a slight adjustment in timing. A significant wave event is expected to affect the west coast, with peak conditions anticipated early Wednesday morning around 3am, coinciding with high tide. A second high tide later that afternoon may also be influenced by residual wave energy.
Despite the notable swell and wave height, the region is currently experiencing a neap tide cycle, which means tidal levels are relatively low. This reduces the likelihood of widespread coastal inundation. However, there remains potential for erosion along open coast beaches, particularly in areas that have already been impacted by recent wave activity. The combination of large waves and modest tides introduces a degree of uncertainty regarding the extent of erosion that may occur.
For other coastal areas, including the Firth of Thames and eastern Coromandel Peninsula, the risk of coastal inundation is considered low. The peak wave activity in these areas is expected to occur earlier, around early morning on Tuesday, 28 October.
Land instability
Areas that would normally experience land instability may be affected by rainfall about the hill country and ranges of the region. This may heighten the risk of landslip and people in these areas should remain vigilant for early warning signs of earth movement.
Road users should plan ahead and keep up to date with the latest from their local council and the NZ Transport Agency Waka Kotahi.
What we're doing
Waikato Regional Council flood and drainage schemes
Our managed flood infrastructure has withstood the challenges of the recent weather. Our local operations staff will remain on standby to monitor our flood and drainage schemes.
The Whangamarino Control Gates were reopened on Thursday, 23 October, one week after being closed to prevent back flow from the Waikato River into the Whangamarino Wetland.
Please note, drainage schemes will take time to return to the pre-event conditions. Rest assured our local operations staff are monitoring.
Waikato Regional Council telemetry
Our telemetry network continues to provide real-time data on rainfall and river levels and is monitored 24/7 by our Regional Flood Response team. Visit our Environmental Data Hub for the latest river level and rainfall accumulations.
Next update
Flood Room will be updated before 1pm on Tuesday, 28 October, or earlier if the situation changes.
New Zealand Flood Pics
New Zealand Flood Pics is a photographic archive of flooding for Aotearoa New Zealand which is currently hosted by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA). It's free for anybody to upload or download flood photographs and your contributions are welcomed.
